AUD/USD Analysis
Commodity-linked Aussie vs US Dollar — trade with RBA, China and commodity rhythms in mind.
Approx. Volume Share
Avg Daily Pips
Typical Spread (pips)
Iron ore & gold linkage
Key Fundamental Drivers
1. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
RBA rate decisions, statements and forward guidance drive AUD strength. Markets react strongly to RBA inflation commentary and wage growth data.
2. China Demand & Commodity Prices
Australia's commodity exports mean AUD correlates with iron ore, coal and to some extent gold and base metals. Chinese PMI, trade data and property sector news are major catalysts.
3. US Dollar & Fed Policy
USD strength impacts AUD/USD inversely. Fed rate changes, USD risk-on/off cycles, and US economic surprises shift the pair significantly.
4. Risk Sentiment
AUD is risk-sensitive — strengthens in risk-on environments and weakens during risk-off episodes. Monitor global equities and VIX closely.
Technical Analysis & Levels
Major Support
- • 0.6500 — psychological support (example)
- • 0.6800 — medium-term support
- • 0.7000 — strong congestion zone
Major Resistance
- • 0.7500 — key psychological level
- • 0.7700 — recent highs cluster
- • 0.8000 — extreme bullish scenario
Indicators to Watch
Use moving average crossovers (20/50 EMA), ATR for stop placement, MACD for trend confirmation and CCI/RSI for momentum entries.
Practical Trading Strategies
1. RBA Reaction Trade
Enter after RBA commentary when inflation/wage guidance surprises expectations. Use wider stops and watch liquidity as volatility spikes.
2. Commodity Correlation Scalps
Short-term trades using iron ore and gold price moves as leading indicators. Tight stops, quick returns; best during Asia-Pac sessions.
3. Trend Following on 4H
Use 50 EMA confirmation on the 4-hour chart, enter on pullbacks, and trail stops using ATR × 1.5–2.
Risk Management
Position Sizing
- • Conservative: 0.5% risk per trade
- • Moderate: 1% risk per trade
- • News Trades: Reduce size by 50%
Stop Placement
- • Technical stops beyond swing points + buffer
- • ATR-based stops for volatility adaptation
- • Use limit entries during low liquidity
Economic Events That Move AUD/USD
High Impact
- • RBA Rate Decision & Statement
- • Australian CPI & Employment
- • China PMI & Trade Data
Medium Impact
- • Australian Retail Sales
- • Iron ore price updates
- • RBA Governor speeches
Low Impact
- • Regional Australian data
- • Minor commodity moves